ByteTrend 101
Trend regimes
A sharper, rarer signal layered on top of the score — most assets, most days, are simply Neutral.
The five regimes
A regime is computed for each of the four scores. The one ByteTrend shows by default — in the asset tables, the group pages and the header of every security page — is the Weekly CAPR regime, and it fires only when an asset sits at a 30-week CAPR high or low and its Weekly CAPR score is at a particular level. Both conditions, or it stays Neutral.
| Regime | Condition |
|---|---|
| Leading Trend | Score 5 at a 30-week high |
| Emerging Trend | Score 1–4 at a 30-week high |
| Weakening Trend | Score 1–3 at a 30-week low |
| Bear Trend | Score 0 at a 30-week low |
| Neutral | None of the above |
Sitting at a 30-week low always fails two of the five rules, so a Weakening Trend never scores above 3. Sitting at a high usually passes the same two, so an Emerging Trend is almost always a 2–4. The ByteTrend score has the exact conditions.
Why so many assets are Neutral
That is the design, not a gap in the data. Requiring an asset to be at a 30-week extreme is a high bar — most things, most of the time, are somewhere in the middle of their range. Rarity is what makes the named regimes worth looking at.
A useful consequence: a Leading Trend asset can drop back to Neutral with no score change at all, simply by drifting away from its 30-week high. The regime is a sharper instrument than the score, and it moves for reasons the score doesn’t see.
Emerging vs Leading
These two are the ones worth learning properly.
- Leading Trend is confirmation: everything is working, and the asset is at the top of its recent range.
- Emerging Trend is earlier and noisier: the asset is at a 30-week high but hasn’t yet passed all five tests. Some of those go on to become Leading; others fade.
Which of those you want depends entirely on whether you are looking to join established strength or to be early. ByteTrend doesn’t rank one above the other — it just tells you which you are looking at.
The Daily regime
Each score has its own regime, judged against its own series: the CAPR regimes against the CAPR high and low, the Local regimes against the asset’s own price. The Daily regimes use the same five categories and the same rules, applied to the Daily score against a 30-day high or low (42 days for digital assets). They fire far more often and turn over faster than the Weekly ones.
A security page’s Trend Analysis lists all four scores, each with its own regime, so the Daily regimes sit there beside the Weekly ones. The two can legitimately disagree about the same asset on the same day: the Weekly regime tells you about the multi-year picture, the Daily one about the last month. The exact conditions are on The ByteTrend score.